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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd